Our pick
Home or Draw (1X)
xG
1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.5
39%
Both score
45%
The model's strongest pick is Mexico or draw at 77%, above the 72% norm for this competition. Mexico are 48% to win outright, but Ecuador have failed to score in 4 of their last 6. That gap to the norm is what makes this the strongest read.
Mexico
Average
Ecuador
Above average
3
Mexico
4
Draws
3
Ecuador