Our pick
Home or Draw (1X)
xG
1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.5
39%
Both score
45%
The model's strongest pick is Mexico or a draw at 77%, against a 72% norm for this competition. Mexico are favourites at 48% to win, with the draw at 29%. The gap to the norm, not the raw figure, is what makes this the stronger read.
Mexico
Average
Ecuador
Above average
3
Mexico
4
Draws
3
Ecuador