Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.3 – 1.0
Over 2.5
63%
Both score
57%
The model makes Portugal the favourite at 66%, with a draw at 20% and a Croatia win at 14%. That 66% is well above the 48% norm for home wins in this competition, which is the main reason it stands out. Expected goals are 2.27 for Portugal and 0.98 for Croatia.
Portugal
Above average
Croatia
Average
7
Portugal
2
Draws
1
Croatia