Our pick
Away or Draw (X2)
xG
1.4 – 1.7
Over 2.5
59%
Both score
61%
The model's top pick is USA to win or draw, at 70%, against a 52% norm for this competition. That gap is why it stands out. USA's attack ranks 9th against a Turkey defence rated 123rd weakest, with expected goals of 1.70 for USA and 1.35 for Turkey.
Turkey
Average
USA
Above average
3
Turkey
1
Draws
2
USA