Our pick Strong
Home Win
xG
2.6 – 0.8
Over 2.5
66%
Both score
53%
The model projects 2.59 goals for Spain and 0.83 for Croatia, giving 75% for the home win, 16% for the draw and 9% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 5145 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
Spain
Above average
Croatia
Average
6
Spain
2
Draws
2
Croatia