Belgium vs Italy prediction, UEFA European Championship
Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
76.6%
xG
1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.5
51%
Both score
56%
Form
Full stats →
BelgiumLWLWL
ItalyWDWLWMatch analysis
Model generatedBelgium favoured at 43%, in a middling game
The model projects 1.52 goals for Belgium and 1.20 for Italy, giving 43% for the home win, 27% for the draw and 29% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 5145 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
- Expected goals: 1.52 - 1.20
- Clean sheet chance: Belgium 30%, Italy 22%
Match result
1X2Belgium43.4%
Draw27.5%
Italy29.1%
Model rating
All ratings →5.6
Belgium
Above average
6.1
Italy
Above average
BelgiumLast 10 gamesItaly1.70Points per game2.00
2.0Goals scored per game1.6
1.2Goals conceded per game1.0
60%Over 2.5 goals30%
60%Both teams scored50%
30%Clean sheets40%
20%Failed to score10%
Recent results
Head to head
Last 10 meetings3
Belgium
1
Draws
6
Italy
- 25 Sept 26Italy 0-2 Belgium
- 14 Nov 24Belgium 0-1 Italy
- 10 Oct 24Italy 2-2 Belgium
- 10 Oct 21Italy 2-1 Belgium
- 2 Jul 21Belgium 1-2 Italy