Our pick
Home or Draw (1X)
xG
1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.5
58%
Both score
60%
The model projects 1.77 goals for Spain and 1.24 for England, giving 49% for the home win, 25% for the draw and 26% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 10105 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
Spain
Above average
England
Above average
7
Spain
1
Draws
2
England