Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.5
55%
Both score
59%
The model makes France slight favourites at 40%, with Spain on 33% and a draw on 27%. Expected goals are 1.53 for France and 1.37 for Spain, and 1-1 is the most likely single score at 13%. Spain's six straight wins are notable, though the model already weights recent form.
France
Above average
Spain
Above average
2
France
1
Draws
7
Spain