Our pick
Home or Away (12)
xG
1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.5
57%
Both score
61%
The model projects 1.63 goals for England and 1.36 for Spain, giving 43% for the home win, 26% for the draw and 31% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 10105 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
England
Above average
Spain
Above average
2
England
1
Draws
7
Spain