Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction, World Cup Qualifying UEFA
Our pick Strong
Over 1.5 Goals
77.3%
xG
1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.5
52%
Both score
50%
Form
Full stats →
ItalyWDWLW
Northern IrelandLWDLWMatch analysis
EnhancedItaly favoured at 61%, but goals markets look close
The model gives Italy a 61% chance to win at home, with 1.90 expected goals against 0.87 for Northern Ireland. Over 2.5 goals sits near a coin flip at 52%, so the goals markets offer little clear edge. Italy's home record and recent form back the favourite, but a 61% chance still leaves a real chance of a draw or upset.
Match result
1X2Italy60.5%
Draw23.7%
Northern Ireland15.8%
Model rating
All ratings →6.1
Italy
Above average
5.4
Northern Ireland
Average
ItalyLast 10 gamesNorthern Ireland2.00Points per game1.30
1.6Goals scored per game1.0
1.0Goals conceded per game1.2
30%Over 2.5 goals30%
50%Both teams scored40%
40%Clean sheets30%
10%Failed to score30%
Recent results
Head to head
Last 8 meetings6
Italy
2
Draws
0
Northern Ireland
- 26 Mar 26Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland
- 15 Nov 21Northern Ireland 0-0 Italy
- 25 Mar 21Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland
- 11 Oct 11Italy 3-0 Northern Ireland
- 8 Oct 10Northern Ireland 0-0 Italy