Our pick Strong
Home Win
xG
2.7 – 1.0
Over 2.5
71%
Both score
59%
The model projects 2.71 goals for England and 0.98 for Croatia, giving 73% for the home win, 16% for the draw and 11% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 10105 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
England
Above average
Croatia
Average
6
England
2
Draws
2
Croatia