Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.5
55%
Both score
59%
The model gives France a 40% chance to win, Spain 33%, and a draw 27%. Expected goals are 1.53 for France and 1.37 for Spain, with over 2.5 goals at 55%. Spain's six straight wins count for a lot, but the model already weights recent results, and every figure here is a probability, not a guaranteed result.
France
Above average
Spain
Above average
2
France
1
Draws
7
Spain