Belgium vs Italy prediction, UEFA Nations League
Our pick
Home or Draw (1X)
77.4%
xG
1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.5
59%
Both score
59%
Form
Full stats →
BelgiumLWLWL
ItalyWDWLWMatch analysis
Model generatedBelgium favoured at 53%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 1.89 goals for Belgium and 1.17 for Italy, giving 53% for the home win, 24% for the draw and 23% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 5145 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 11%
- Expected goals: 1.89 - 1.17
- Clean sheet chance: Belgium 31%, Italy 15%
Match result
1X2Belgium53.1%
Draw24.3%
Italy22.6%
Model rating
All ratings →5.6
Belgium
Above average
6.1
Italy
Above average
BelgiumLast 10 gamesItaly1.70Points per game2.00
2.0Goals scored per game1.6
1.2Goals conceded per game1.0
60%Over 2.5 goals30%
60%Both teams scored50%
30%Clean sheets40%
20%Failed to score10%
Recent results
Head to head
Last 10 meetings3
Belgium
1
Draws
6
Italy
- 25 Sept 26Italy 0-2 Belgium
- 14 Nov 24Belgium 0-1 Italy
- 10 Oct 24Italy 2-2 Belgium
- 10 Oct 21Italy 2-1 Belgium
- 2 Jul 21Belgium 1-2 Italy