Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.5
52%
Both score
46%
The model makes Italy the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Luxembourg. That 67% sits well above the 48% home-win norm in this competition. Italy's home record and the attack-defence fit both support the call.
Italy
Above average
Luxembourg
Average
1
Italy
1
Draws
0
Luxembourg